The world is gradually easing the harsh restrictions caused by the Coronavirus pandemic. While so far the attention was mainly about the deaths and the struggle of the health care system, now the talk is mainly about how to reopen the economy and the society.
This is a rather controversial issue as there is no clear solution. On one side, some people want to open everything and soon; on the other, the feeling is that it’s better to use more caution as much as we can. The reality is that there is no clear answer to this conundrum. But which are the cities with the best chances to have a fast recovery?
The 9 cities with good chances of a fast recovery
According to an interesting report from Moody’s Analytics, there are some types of cities that can recover faster than others. According to Adam Kamins, senior regional economist at Moody’s Analytics, there are 2 key factors that will help the recovery: low population density and high educational attainment.
Kamins stressed a fascinating difference between the previous financial crisis and the actual situation to comment: “A key difference between this recovery and the last recovery is the population density. It’s going to have a different effect this time than it did last time.”
Therefore, while before being in a highly dense area was an advantage, most probably this time, that will not be the case.
He added: “some of the places that we’re really looking at now would be places that have high degrees of educational attainment but are lower density. [Places that] have grown very, very well over the last five or six years, in particular, are pretty well positioned coming out of this whenever we do.”
Kamins highlighted that these 9 cities are extremely well positions for a fast recovery: Durham, San Jose, Austin, Minneapolis, Denver, Salt Lake City, Washington D.C, Des Moines (Iowa), and Omaha (Nebraska).
(Graphic courtesy of David Foster/Yahoo Finance)
Talking about Des Moines and Omaha, he commented: “They’re not places that you think of as sort of prestigious economies they’re somewhat isolated in terms of where they are relative to the rest of the U.S.
But both of those actually have a pretty strong financial services sector, a fairly well-educated population, especially compared to the kind of surrounding regions at lots of opportunity to kind of spread out.”
The struggle of New York
Unfortunately, according to Kamins, highly populated cities and centers that draw their strengths from tourists will struggle the most. Therefore, it will take more time to recover for cities such as New York, Miami, Boston, Las Vegas, San Francisco and Honolulu.
Kamins added: “New York City’s greatest asset is a large, skilled workforce that is drawn to the fast-paced and highly interactive nature of life in the Big Apple. But activities such as riding the subway, dining in crowded restaurants, and attending Broadway shows may be viewed as inherently risky for some time, consistent with the city’s status as the single-most economically exposed metro area or division.”
Graphs courtesy of worldometers
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